Learning about academic ability and the drop-out decision

Using unique longitudinal data, we study beliefs about academic ability at the time of college entrance and how students revise these beliefs as noisy information if received. We show that what a person learns about his academic ability during the first year is an important predictor of whether he remains in school. By taking advantage of additional longitudinal survey information, we compare the importance of learning about ability to the importance of learning about the enjoyability of school and a variety of other factors that theory suggests may be important.